The AAPL stock is one that is a goliath in the trading world. Whether it is being used to trade as a day trade or as a longer-term investment the AAPL stock is one that has been great for both situations. Normally I like to go over the fundamentals for a stock but with the AAPL stock, I am not going to do this. They have one of the best market shares in mobile phones, computers, and tablets that it isn’t necessary. If they do eventually fall from their throne it will be quite a while. So this post is going to focus on the technical side of the charts for 2019. I have owned Apple’s stock earlier in this year but I do not currently own it. I have no plans to purchase the AAPL stock in the next 48 hours.
If you are looking for new or recent news articles regarding Apple and their stock or company then I recommend Finviz. It is a site I use when looking for fundamentals and information about companies I am looking to review or trade. They have a paid option but I have never used it. I only have used the free information they provide. They also have a technical and stock screener you can use as well to filter stocks. I go over on how I used it in my post about how I scan for winning stocks.
AAPL Technical Analysis
50% Pullback
Right off the bat, we are looking at the daily chart. Price is currently in a 50 pull back long. To be clear, this isn’t a trade I personally take but it is a setup that others use very effectively. As you can see from the chart, the price of Apple’s stock bounced nicely off of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The target we are looking for is the orange/salmon line at around $232. If this move completes then that is the target to look for during this setup.
76.4% Pullback Short (Completed)
The setup here is the 76.4% pullback. It is a completed trade but I wanted to show you why that is important. The more completed trades you have in one direction then the greater the odds the stock will move in the other direction.
The first picture above is the 76.4% anchor. What that means is price retraced to the purple line using the yellow pivot points as the basis for that move. Once that happens then you have an anchor point to trade from.
The second picture is using the 76.4% anchor point for the swing high point. Then you can see below how we used the very bottom pivot as the swing low. The 76.4% line which is the purple line is the entry to this trade on the second picture. So you would short it at that point. Then your exit is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level which is the red line. As you can see that setup has been completed. This is important because now this is a short setup that it out of the way so the odds of a higher move up for the AAPL stock increases. I highlighted the previous trade area with a blue box.
423.6% Trade
This setup stems from the 76.4% trade setup. What I noticed is when you have a retracement down to the 76.4% level, then when the price goes up/down to the 423.6% Fibonacci extension level that we can expect some movement.
So I highlighted the two areas. The first is the blue box which is the 423.6% Fibonacci extension level at the first green line or the top of the blue box. When the price hits that level then look for a retracement down to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level which is the red line or the bottom of the blue box. But if the price doesn’t come down and hit that level and continues to move up then the next short level will be at the 523.6% Fibonacci extension level.
If that happens then you move the exits up to the bottom of the yellow box. After that, if the price keeps on going higher you don’t move your exit again. You can just get it and short at higher levels but that exit at the bottom of the yellow box doesn’t move. But again, this is only if the 261.8% extension level isn’t hit first. If that level is hit first then the short at 523.6% level is invalid.
This is a very interesting setup I’ve found that both works for longs and shorts. The key is making sure the 76.4% retracement level is hit for these extension levels to be activated. I use the 76.4% rather than 78.6% because 76.4% is the reverse of 23.6%. The only significance the 78.6% provides is it is the square root of 61.8%. Either one is probably fine but that is my preference as to why I use the 76.4% over 76.8%. I am looking to mirror the Fibonacci levels I use on either side of the 50% level. The weird thing about the 50% level is it is not a Fibonacci number. But the trades act so well off of it that most people use it in some sort of way for their analysis of the charts.
I circled the pivot points I used in yellow that can be seen in the bottom left-hand corner of the chart.
Video Explaining the Charts for Apple’s Technical Analysis
How to Trade the AAPL Stock for 2019
From the technical setups in the charts above I am looking for any pullback or weakness in the AAPL stock. I already traded it once this year for a nice profit. Unfortunately, I did not buy it at the 2019’s lows of around $142 from that last stock sell-off. Just like almost every other company that has existed for a long time, Apple will eventually stop being the king of the industry. That won’t happen today or tomorrow but it will eventually. In my own opinion, I don’t think it will happen anytime soon. So if you plan on buying and holding the stock, or if you already own the stock and are in it for the long term then I don’t see any reason to sell right now.
Whenever the stock market eventually corrects, which it eventually will. Then that should create an excellent buying opportunity for Apple. Almost all companies are not immune to a market sell-off. Apple isn’t either, but it shouldn’t reflect any weakness in the stock. I do have some money put aside for when that day comes. Apple will be one of the stocks I will look to start purchasing when I think the market is close to bottoming. I won’t be able to time it perfectly which is why I’ll start buying incrementally on the way down. Because when the market moves back up then Apple will provide extraordinary gains.
For the rest of 2019 if the stock market keeps going up then there isn’t any reason for Apple to not follow suit.
If you have ever been to an Apple store then you know you have to make an appointment if you need technical help for your phone, tablet, or computer. Their stores are just that busy. From the picture above I’ve never seen an Apple store in a mall to have that few of people inside. Normally it is packed to the max.
Plus, their marketing is brilliant. Next time you see an Apple commercial just notice how they spend about 5% of the time on the specs regarding the product they are promoting. If they spend any more time on the specs then they are somehow woven into the commercial. Because what Apple focuses on is the experience. Their products provide an experience and they’ve convinced the world you cannot have those positive experiences without their products. It is one of the most brilliant marketing campaigns I have ever seen. As long as they keep this as the focal point to selling their products then I don’t see them slowing down anytime soon.
Conclusion
Apple has been an amazing stock to own for many years now. It is one of the stocks where it truly would have been a fine trade to just buy and hold the stock since just about any time from 2009 to today (unless you bought at the previous high of $233).
Hopefully, the technical analysis has shown that if the positive earnings continue for Apple then it will continue to move higher. The target I have for 2019 is $233 for the AAPL stock.
The way I analyze the market was brought on through meditation. Meditating helped show me how to trust myself and create my own trading setups. It brought me my first taste of being a profitable trader. I truly believe if you incorporate meditation into your life you will not only see your trading improve but your overall quality of life as well.
So give it a try for yourself and let me know what you think. If I can assist you in your trading career please let me know. My goal is to assist as many people as possible in their trading career while destroying as much poverty as possible along the way.
Take care,
-Evan Carthey
